DON'T rely only upon the forecasts alone, that is the point. In a large sense, the forecasters don't worry all that much about us or what we do. They don't focus on micro-meteorology to the degree we do, consciously or otherwise.
We should look into this stuff to some degree ourselves. It isn't all that hard or time consuming, nor is it perfect but it beats riding blind regardless of what is coming in when you might get a clue of things to come. You may miss weather hazards entirely but then again you might just dodge some too. You will likely be on the water riding sooner than many others with less time waiting.
Flyers, bluewater sailers, even ski mountaineers do this, because they need to. So do we, whether we realize it or not.
1. Check the best forecast for your area including wx hazards.
2. Check the national weather map loop to see if cold fronts or unstable systems are inbound. If so, how strong, how fast and when?
3. Check color radar/satellite for inbound unstable weather. If so, how strong, how fast and when, what is the temperature drop? Waiting an hour or so can make all the difference sometimes, forewarned is forearmed.
4. Check realtime winds both locally and upweather or in the direction the system is coming from to time the passage of a cold front, possibly with a squall line or just a dry mega boost in wind. Is the wind rising, if so how much, are there spikes, is the direction changing or erratic indicative of squalls. Rig for actual conditions AFTER the stable wind, wind shifts come on and new temperatures. Try to make sure you aren't avoidably "surprised" by the wind boosting and shifting side offshore as others have in the past.
5. Keep your eyes open at the beach. Sometimes you can see cold front wind lines creep toward you, both the good kind and the kind that may be too much for what you are flying. Watch out for storm clouds and avoid having a kite up when they approach.
You can time your cold front wind waiting down to about 30 minutes at times using this technique and be prepared with a better idea of what kite size to fly. Less time waiting and changing out kites/boards, more time riding?!
Think about trying this out and tell us how you do.
I am trying to understand what may have happened physiologically to Jason through this accident. It seems the initial impact may have caused the Diffuse axonal injury* through differential forces during the violent impact against water. He likely lost consciousness at this point. I am less certain when he may have stopped breathing. Successive impacts due to high wind low lofting and dragging likely aggravated things. He was pulled repeated with violence largely out of the water for a time downwind until the winds eased. He was then pulled shoreward by fate and the kite falling and flying in that direction. He was submerged during this portion of the accident. As no fluids were found in his lungs, he wasn't breathing during this time. More accurately, what happened might be more due to respiratory failure maybe submerged asphyxia than fluid induced drowning. Expert input on this would be welcome.
* Diffuse axonal injury profoundly damages brain tissue. Diffuse axonal injury usually results from twisting or rotational forces. Car accidents, sporting accidents, and child abuse commonly cause diffuse axonal injury. When the head is rapidly accelerated or decelerated, tissues of differing densities and distances slide over one another, stretching and shearing axons (brain nerve fibers), which prevents communication between brain cells.
Diffuse axonal injury most often results in coma; nearly 90 percent of these coma victims never regain consciousness.