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wind alert forcast accuracy at your location

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NYKiter
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wind alert forcast accuracy at your location

Postby NYKiter » Thu Sep 05, 2013 12:50 pm

I'd call it 50/50 here....

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Re: wind alert forcast accuracy at your location

Postby gbgreen59 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:48 pm

Very reliable where I kite. :thumb: :thumb:

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Re: wind alert forcast accuracy at your location

Postby Drew22 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:54 pm

Fall/Winter id say 50/50 or even a bit bettrr. Summer is whole new ball game I think for the last 2 months theres been atleast 10 they were calling over 18 mph and as it gets near it turns to 5 .ph. I dont know what model they use but they will be the only ones calling for wind and of course as it nears theres looks like the rest. I feel like they are trolling Fl kiters in the summer.

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Re: wind alert forcast accuracy at your location

Postby PVITfrumBYRAM » Thu Sep 05, 2013 2:32 pm

It's pretty good on the Outer Banks, usually accurate about direction changes but I think local knowledge is required to get the most out of all forecasts, whether they be accurate with speed and direction or just one of the two. For instance on Hatteras, a 15mph wind from the SW is stronger than a 15mph wind from the W or very WSW. Probably warmer wind is the culprit but it gets most people by surprise when the wind speed is the same from one day to the next but people need a few extra meters on the West days. I think that all though the numbers and forecasts are not always accurate, it is very nice to have some model and something at least a little close.

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Re: wind alert forcast accuracy at your location

Postby PVITfrumBYRAM » Thu Sep 05, 2013 2:32 pm

It's pretty good on the Outer Banks, usually accurate about direction changes but I think local knowledge is required to get the most out of all forecasts, whether they be accurate with speed and direction or just one of the two. For instance on Hatteras, a 15mph wind from the SW is stronger than a 15mph wind from the W or very WSW. Probably warmer wind is the culprit but it gets most people by surprise when the wind speed is the same from one day to the next but people need a few extra meters on the West days. I think that all though the numbers and forecasts are not always accurate, it is very nice to have some model and something at least a little close.

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Re: wind alert forcast accuracy at your location

Postby KYLakeKiter » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:17 pm

Great Topic! I agree that when higher winds are forecast, it is much more accurate. At 12kts or less (which is almost always here), it is 50/50. I watch windalert every day to see which days might be worth making plans for, but I don't count on it until I can confirm it with some other sources like accuweather and even weather.com. On the day of, I confirm it with local airport forecasts from ADDS. I still get skunked sometimes, but you have to plan with something. I know its a science, but getting out at the right time is more like an art (and apparently I am still coloring with crayons :lol:).

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Re: wind alert forcast accuracy at your location

Postby edt » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:07 pm

it dont matter what site you u use windfinder windguru windalert, or something else they all use the same models, NAM12km WRF 5km, CMC .6, GFS .5, NAM 5km, NAM 12km, HRW 5km, but the front end is different.

There is something different about one of the models used in wind alert, they have a "quicklook" (their default model) which does some sort of average of all the forecasts

Just saying be careful when you talk about a particular site being accurate or not, you need to explain which model you are looking at, you can go on all the different websites see a bunch of different forecasts, but what you might not know is the reason they are different is because each site has a different model set as "default" but if you know what you are doing you can see all the forecasts from a single site, all you do by switching from website to website is a clumsy way of switching which model you are looking at.

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Re: wind alert forcast accuracy at your location

Postby jbdc » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:35 pm

The reason I like WindAlert is because I can see all the models for my area side by side then compare them with the other forecasts, and models (1, 2) to get a handle on which models are more likely to be right.

As best as I can tell, "Quicklook" for my area is simply NAM 12km and GFS 0.5 Deg taped together--no averaging or anything.

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Re: wind alert forcast accuracy at your location

Postby edt » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:49 pm

jbdc wrote:As best as I can tell, "Quicklook" for my area is simply NAM 12km and GFS 0.5 Deg taped together--no averaging or anything.


u must be missing a model for your area, my nam 12km and quicklook are different, quicklook averages some other models in for me.

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Re: wind alert forcast accuracy at your location

Postby Drew22 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:52 pm

What model do you guys find to be the best or most accurate.


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