In 5 (not 10) years time....mainly marginalised and kooky I think.....

Much as I love this sport, its already followed the windsurfing transition from a really exciting new sport, to a sport with really really expensive gear mainly done by slightly overweight men over 35 years old.....just like windsurfing did. (I'm over 35 but not overweight, just for the record).

And the PKRA side of things is already dead.....not a good sign.

You know that once the beach scene changes from young guys without much money to old guys all standing around flash cars with four kite and three board quivers, its kind of done for.

....but hey, its going to be in the Olympics! Just like windsurfing !

In 10 years time, just a handful of big brands making kites still. Still a very small group doing amazing stuff in conditions very few have access to....lots less people in the mainstream. The sport is just too inaccessible, too dangerous and now too expensive to flourish. Most people who were attracted to it seem to have got involved already, I dont think there is a big queue waiting in the background.

(airush were on to it a few years ago experimenting with light kites on very short lines and big big boards, developing a method to make the sport safe, less space consuming and user friendly....dont know what happened to that particular plan.....)

Airush called it the 'access'. Maybe it was too early for it?

But expensive? If you buy new maybe, but used is very cheap!
For a 1000 euro you can buy 3 kites and a board!

Will still be growing another 10 years. Still growing faster for another 2-3 years; my guess.

Too much regulations.

Foils will have more than 50% of market share. (You wanna bet, PMU?)
Kites (the LEI type) and boards will available in Hypermarkets at very low cost compared to today.
Because of congestion and over-regulation of crowded Western countries beaches, big growth foreseen for faraway destinations where wind and wide empty beaches are guaranteed (Philippines, Indonesia, Madagascar, Morocco, Mozambique, N-E Brazil....)

the use of various carbon supports will give foils the one thing they lack...some rigidity when not flying. It will be revolutionary.

LEI's, I am having a hard time thinking of any radical improvements.....sorry. Twin skin, more of a wing than a sail? (yes, I know sails generate lift like a wing)

The light wind market will mature, everyone will make a light wind kite, and most will own one.

You know what would be cool? An inflatable foil. One you could pressurize enough for it to hold it's own shape all the time, like a LEI does. That would be the shit. Could you imagine? Just need the right fabric...you know, that ultra-light weight, low stretch, self sealing seam, puncture and abrasion resistant fabric that doesn't exist yet.

More mainstream - booming then bust due to not enough room - with only the industry to blame due to their constant obsession of wanting to create new markets for profit, that makes kiting equipment more and more complicated and more and more specialized which sucks in my view

i have really changed my mind recently after being fully pro wakestyle but now decided wakestyle killed freestyle dead in the ass due to the fact that every pro except for the top 10 does exactly the same tricks - over and over and over and over again... slim blind judge3 313 l3 front blind air pass back mobe etc and in 18 knots of wind. Sliders are THE most boring thing on planet earth at the current level , kind of like watching paint dry with the exception of a couple of ballsy gap hits i have seen recently.

i think the supposed progression has created regression with the influence of top riders, there are so many possibilities with a kite, so many things to come - just stagnant right now. I say don't try and be other riders, be yourself and bring something new to the table. Be aware everything is relative when it comes to riding style and wind strength is a big part of that.

My perspective is pretty limited, since I have essentially only ridden in my home area (midwest US). For us inland kiters, it's different. It's a very self-limiting sport due to the conditions and cost. On top of the gear the warm-coasters need, we need lots more wetsuit/drysuits, or you don't kite much. A snowboard or skis are also needed, plus the snowkite outerwear. Kiting here seems to have almost no appeal for most women, mostly due to the water conditions we kite in.

In addition to all the reasons others have listed, there are some others I've thought of. I really think that there is only a very small percentage of the population that can wrap their brains around the concept of being out on the water without anything that can keep you seriously afloat. That by itself is going to limit the folks that try to get into the sport. Once they really look at what's involved, a lot of people don't pursue it beyond the first lesson. It's too hard for most people to learn quickly, and at least in the US, that's going to limit more serious interest. Too many Americans want to just turn the key, step on the gas, and steer.

That said, though, I still run into people at the beach almost every time I'm out that have never seen kiting. They're fascinated by it, but have no clue how we're doing what we're doing. I think it's partially due to the fact that when the kiting here is good, it's not "bikinis on the beach" kind of weather. One of our favorite kiting sites is a lake populated by duck hunters and fishermen, and those guys typically aren't into water sports like kiting. The launch there is a boat ramp next to a gun club, so there aren't a lot of beach gawkers (like none). That lack of public awareness and contact with the sport is also going to limit the growth.

Just some of my random thoughts.

Don

like this doesnt happen in every boardsport, maybe exept for skating. in snowboarding/skiing, contests are all about doing the same tricks over and over, and those sports are still growing. contests should not be defining the sport in any way, and for most of the people riding in these sports, its not.

sliders arent progressing because it takes a lot of effort to make the sliders, and when they are made, they are made so most people can hit them, aka boring to watch. 90% of all sliders being made is big ass dancefloors. if we want to make sliders more fun to watch, we need to up the risk a little bit. creativity is really only the thing that is holding sliders back.

"contests should not be defining the sport in any way"

agree 100% and that includes all contests, the freestyle, wakestyle, oldschool, just the fact they have become opposing forces in some circles is just against everything i like about kiting. The diversity, risk, creativity, style and by style I also mean not being a copy and paste robot.

I really did think wakestyle was going to progress a lot faster than it did which proves how difficult it is when you have random wind forces on you and not the smooth pull of a motor to deal with.

Think of it like this. A single kite costs $1800 which is way beyond the means of most people and yet we need 2 more kites and 1 or 2 boards, and today we have companies pushing wave specific kites, freestyle kites, old school kites, race kites, speed kites, freeride kites and wakestyle kites. Yet the standard of riding is not much higher than it was 5 years ago, if at all. Company driven self destruction and selfishness to create more expensive kit for more affluent customers by many companies.

Think I am going to start riding a c quad which probably cost $20 to produce and a sheet of ply...