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Sudden boost in winds...

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markap42
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Re: Sudden boost in winds...

Postby markap42 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 1:12 pm

See attached. Speaks for itself.
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IMG_1036.jpg
IMG_1036.jpg (49.74 KiB) Viewed 574 times

Don Monnot
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Re: Sudden boost in winds...

Postby Don Monnot » Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:53 pm

Wowza!!! Now that's a gust! If you're near shore when that sucker hit, it's goodbye kite or hello to hurtin'.

Don

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Re: Sudden boost in winds...

Postby SupaEZ » Thu Oct 10, 2013 5:24 pm

At 5pm when wind dropped off and started to shift ...was the clue in itself ...as seen on that graph

The monster gust was at 6pm.......dangerous that's for sure :wink:

Not sudden....plenty of time to take cover...i am sure something big was visible and approaching

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Re: Sudden boost in winds...

Postby Bille » Thu Oct 10, 2013 5:50 pm

SupaEZ wrote:...

Not sudden....plenty of time to take cover...i am sure something big was visible and approaching


Look at 5:30 on, as the wind Increased , the Gusts increased MORE ; and
Kept increasing !!

Like Supa said : "Nothing Sudden .... with Plenty of time to take cover" .

Bille

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Re: Sudden boost in winds...

Postby RichardM » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:31 pm

markap42 wrote:See attached. Speaks for itself.

This looks like an iKitesurf graph.

At the vast majority of beaches where they have sensors around here, what is ACTUALLY happening at a location is usually only APPROXIMATELY what the graph shows at any particular moment in time and the degree of accuracy (or LACK thereof) varies moment to moment. In fact, their "reports" are FREQUENTLY not even CLOSE to what is ACTUALLY happening at a particular location or at at particular PART of a location.

Therefore, regardless of what the graph shows, the situation COULD have been much closer to the OP's description.

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Re: Sudden boost in winds...

Postby SupaEZ » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:43 pm

[quote="RichardMTherefore, regardless of what the graph shows, the situation COULD have been much closer to the OP's description.[/quote]




COULD not disagree more :wink:
OP's wind did not change direction....remained blowing onshore..no wind shift of @90 degrees
Went from 16kn to 26 kn .........a 10kn increase.....scarrrrrrrrrry stuff
So that graph is not even close to the situation of the OP

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Re: Sudden boost in winds...

Postby geopeck » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:58 pm

Yeah, that's quite a gust. When I look at the graph I see some stuff that would make me more cautious if I was riding in it.

The wind drops from 16-8 in a few increments, builds back to 14 and then drops to 9 in one increment. But the bigger red flag is the change in direction. You can tell things are changing fast.

I don't know what kind of terrain is around pleasure bay or what kind of wind was being ridden (frontal, diurnal etc.) , but I would consider yourself lucky and start thinking of this experience as part of a deep understanding of your environment.

I'm sure a lot of kiters get this same read on their local winds. Every direction has it's own personality and can be a sign of what is going to happen. My case is a little exaggerated since I have 3000 ft mountains and tall hills on some sides of my local kite spot, and we ride a combination of fronts and day breezes. Some wind directions are great, others OK, some I won't ride out of fear/experience of being burned. And if I travel 20 miles to another spot I have to learn those characteristics as well. Sometimes it means not kiting because I just don't trust what is happening.

Here's something to think about - instead of just looking at the forecast for your spot, look at the prediction and reports for everything around it as well. Some of NOAAs graphics can give a very detailed idea of what the big picture is, to the extent that they are accurate. And if you read their forecast discussion they will actually say that they have low confidence in their forecast or say that all the models are in agreement. I may be a little OCD about the whole thing but I am looking at a minimum of 5 forecasts each time I expect to ride at this time of year, less so when we have day breezes.

And truthfully, it's not just out of an abundance of caution. I am not a nanny for the other riders who live here or a fretter. It's because getting deep understanding of local weather will put me (safely) in the place and moment where the wind and waves are focused. I leave my house at the right time, I skim the cream, I come home and dream about it. When it works.

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Re: Sudden boost in winds...

Postby Laughingman » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:10 pm


RichardM
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Re: Sudden boost in winds...

Postby RichardM » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:38 pm

SupaEZ wrote:[quote="RichardM]Therefore, regardless of what the graph shows, the situation COULD have been much closer to the OP's description.[/quote]

COULD not disagree more :wink:
OP's wind did not change direction....remained blowing onshore..no wind shift of @90 degrees
Went from 16kn to 26 kn .........a 10kn increase.....scarrrrrrrrrry stuff
So that graph is not even close to the situation of the OP[/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote]


Evidently I was not clear. I was trying to make the point that ".... their "reports" are FREQUENTLY not even CLOSE to what is ACTUALLY happening at a particular location or at particular PART of a location."

For example, in this situation, where both the location of the sensor and the OP are unknown AND the OP has stated that the change occurred over a very short period AND the photo of the location shows a CIRCULAR beach, the odds that the sensor INACCURATELY shows the OP's exact situation is even GREATER than usual.

Additionally, I believe that their sensors only report data in some periodic fashion and their REPORT SMOOTHS out the data as it connects the dots. Meaning that a highly PERCUSSIVE type gust could occur but may not show up because it's averaged into the data burst.

Furthermore, they use a type of sensor that spins. Anything that spins loses accuracy the sharper any changes are because it has inertia and momentum. It's best to not treat their graphs as perfectectly representative of an exact situation.

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Re: Sudden boost in winds...

Postby SupaEZ » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:54 am

RichardM wrote:For example, in this situation, where both the location of the sensor and the OP are unknown AND the OP has stated that the change occurred over a very short period AND the photo of the location shows a CIRCULAR beach, the odds that the sensor INACCURATELY shows the OP's exact situation is even GREATER than usual.



The circular beach (graph) is near Boston :wink:
Seaplus the OP is from North Texas :wink:

Richard you are going in circles here


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