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Shocking Winds!!!

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Bletti
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Re: Shocking Winds!!!

Postby Bletti » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:40 am


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marlboroughman
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Re: Shocking Winds!!!

Postby marlboroughman » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:50 am

Hurricane doesn't care.

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Bletti
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Re: Shocking Winds!!!

Postby Bletti » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:17 am

You can cherry-pick all the stats you like. Number of landfalls is a pretty crude and stochastic thing to cling onto.

Here's previous Cat 5 Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (left) next to Cat 5 Hurricane Imra yesterday (right).
andrew irma.png
andrew irma.png (479.79 KiB) Viewed 776 times

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Re: Shocking Winds!!!

Postby Starsky » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:00 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/xclas ... -1.4277312

Thought you said we were in for lower solar activity?

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marlboroughman
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Re: Shocking Winds!!!

Postby marlboroughman » Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:23 pm

Starsky wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:00 pm
Thought you said we were in for lower solar activity?
The sun is heading toward solar minimum now. Sunspot counts were relatively high in 2014, and now they are sliding toward a low point expected in 2019-2020.
While intense activity such as sunspots and solar flares subside during solar minimum, that doesn't mean the sun becomes dull. Solar activity simply changes form.
For instance, says Pesnell, "during solar minimum we can see the development of long-lived coronal holes."
Coronal holes are vast regions in the sun's atmosphere where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.
Pesnell says "We see these holes throughout the solar cycle, but during solar minimum, they can last for a long time - six months or more." Streams of solar wind flowing from coronal holes can cause space weather effects near Earth when they hit Earth's magnetic field. These effects can include temporary disturbances of the Earth's magnetosphere, called geomagnetic storms, auroras, and disruptions to communications and navigation systems.

https://phys.org/news/2017-06-solar-minimum.html#jCp

Incidentally low Sun activity is causing Jet Stream wobble. The Jet stream truck right now is pulling Irma over Florida (the right turn) to high pressure.

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetst ... _fcst.html
Last edited by marlboroughman on Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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marlboroughman
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Re: Shocking Winds!!!

Postby marlboroughman » Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:33 pm

Judith Curry - The surprising thing about this (Irma) development into a major hurricane was that it developed over relatively cool waters in the Atlantic – 26.5C — the rule of thumb is 28.5C for a major hurricane

https://judithcurry.com/2017/09/08/hurr ... s-florida/

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Re: Shocking Winds!!!

Postby Johnny Rotten » Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:40 pm

Marl I highly respect that you support your views with actual data and enjoy reading your critical thought based skepticism

Showing a year over year plot of hurricanes vs sea surface temperature is not the right data. Scientific understanding of hurricanes is that It requires both sea surface temperature trade winds and multiple other factors to create the hurricanes.

In short Your scatter is expected for a multi variable problem it doesn't prove or disprove that temperature influence hurricane frequency it may just look that way because other variables showed up or didn't show up to the party that year.

Since other variables are know to be at play you need to plot average #of hurricanes per season binned by temperature brackets and look for a correlation. To determine if the sea temp has an impact on the hurricane frequency.
It's not the sole cause that much is agreed upon and your data shows that clearly

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Re: Shocking Winds!!!

Postby marlboroughman » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:28 pm

Bletti wrote:
Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:17 am
You can cherry-pick all the stats you like. Number of landfalls is a pretty crude and stochastic thing to cling onto.

Here's previous Cat 5 Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (left) next to Cat 5 Hurricane Imra yesterday (right).

Image
Here is one comparing Floyd with Andrew, both at Category 4 strength. Floyd headed out to sea, but the point is Andrew was far from worst case.

Image

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Re: Shocking Winds!!!

Postby marlboroughman » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:50 pm

All out NASA scientists food fight. :clap:

Highlights:
Gavin Schmidt “couldn’t make it” in maths so he became a climate scientist
Everyone assumes climate scientists are noble. Fighting to save the planet. What nonsense. Not even close.
Calling for them to be defunded because they are “ignoble”, with “herds of do-gooders”, and “NASA GISS is a monument to bad science that truly should be torn down. Take the money and buy a rocket.”

And then there are the not qualified who become climate scientists. When the science bureaucrats (if you can’t do real science be a science bureaucrat) decided global warming was the next big thing, there was a huge influx of money, which meant a huge influx of unqualified into climate science since there just weren’t enough qualified and the money HAD to be used. Enter opportunists, carpetbaggers, the corrupt, the ignoble. Physicists and mathematicians who couldn’t make it in their own fields, like James Hansen and Gavin Schmidt (who actually told me one reason he became a climate scientist was because he couldn’t make it in his degree field of mathematics). People who just wanted instant success as fake heroes or showmen rather than doing years of hard slow obscure real science.

http://joannenova.com.au/2017/09/former ... ding-them/

This is sooo good :rollgrin:


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Re: Shocking Winds!!!

Postby marlboroughman » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:24 pm

Global Warming Pause Set To Surpass Two Decades! 2018 going full La Nina.

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http://notrickszone.com/2017/09/15/as-l ... hn4te.dpbs

The mother of all torpedoes... :rollgrin:


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