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Abnormal 2013/2014 season Sao Vicente

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mvandijk
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Local Beach: Salamansa (Sao Vicente, Cape Verde), Vrouwenpolder (Netherlands)
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Abnormal 2013/2014 season Sao Vicente

Postby mvandijk » Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:01 am

Dear readers,

We would hate for you to get disappointed about the wind in Sao Vicente (a Cape Verde island). Normally the time with good wind from mid-October until the end of June is above 95%.

Judging by abnormal Atlantic weather patterns during the past summer and the lack of wind at the beginning of this season, we predict a bad year. So,

please keep in mind that during the 2013/2014 season, the % of time with good wind may be much lower than normal !!

Here's why we predict a bad season:

This season so far (starting mid-October and looking ahead at forecasts till mid-December), we will get dramatically little wind in Sao Vicente!

From past experience, La Nina occurring during the winter is associated with a dip in wind strength.

But this year we do not have La Nina! (nor El Nino). So are there other anomalies that could be associated with the lack of trade wind in the Atlantic? The anomaly this year seems to be the lack of hurricanes (intensity of hurricanes is lowest since 1984 -2013 and was the sixth-least-active Atlantic hurricane season since 1950).

Can we check the theory of association between low hurricane season intensity and lower intensity trade winds? Another recent year with lower than usual hurricane activity was 2009 (hurricane intensity was below average but not as extreme as 2013). So how was the wind during that season?
It was in fact a season with less wind than usual (5 days without wind per month usual versus the usual 1-2 days without wind per month).

So perhaps a summer of low hurricane activity is predictive of a season with less wind than usual.
Of course, we don’t know for sure. Time and rigorous research will tell.

But if it is true, we are in for a bad 2013/2014 season. Judging by the extent of lack of hurricane intensity (more pronounced in 2013 compared to 2009) and earlier start of the period without wind (November, instead of December), if one super-imposes on the 2009/2010 experience, we may be faced with many windless days until the end of March 2014!!
In terms of time with good wind, during normal years this is above 95% for the period mid-October till end June. During the bad season of 2009-2010 this was 83%. During this season, it may be as low as 60%!!!

sepp_maier1976
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Re: Abnormal 2013/2014 season Sao Vicente

Postby sepp_maier1976 » Mon Feb 03, 2014 12:36 am

Thank you for this really honest information. When do you expect the wind to become better? Do you think it is good in the end of April?

SonnyRider
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Re: Abnormal 2013/2014 season Sao Vicente

Postby SonnyRider » Mon Feb 03, 2014 9:43 am

sepp_maier1976 wrote:Thank you for this really honest information. When do you expect the wind to become better? Do you think it is good in the end of April?


As far as I am aware the wind has been back to 'normal' for a few weeks now

Salamansa is listed in windguru http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc ... sty=m_menu
The next week is looking pretty good, the usual 18kts I've always seen there

I've been to Salamansa for the last two years and we had good wind in the first couple of weeks in February. The first year we had 10 out of 10, last year we had 8 out of 10.
We decided not to go this year due to Marc's warnings. So we booked somewhere else
Typically the wind has come back for Salamansa :roll:

Who knows about April, it's all a judgement call isn't it?

tschoartschi
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Re: Abnormal 2013/2014 season Sao Vicente

Postby tschoartschi » Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:23 pm

SonnyRider wrote:Who knows about April, it's all a judgement call isn't it?

Yeah, thats true. Nobody can predict wind&weather. What is the regular wind during April? Is April still good or is this already the end of the season?
PS: just checked season 2009 at windguru and it seems it was really good during April.

mvandijk
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Local Beach: Salamansa (Sao Vicente, Cape Verde), Vrouwenpolder (Netherlands)
Favorite Beaches: Salamansa (Sao Vicente, Cape Verde)
Style: Waves,Freestyle
Gear: Ozone, Cabrinha, Nobile
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Re: Abnormal 2013/2014 season Sao Vicente

Postby mvandijk » Fri Feb 07, 2014 8:19 pm

sepp_maier1976 wrote:Thank you for this really honest information. When do you expect the wind to become better? Do you think it is good in the end of April?


So far (October to date), the wind has been more erratic: periods with little wind and periods with more wind than normal. We are lucky to only have had only one client who did not have enough wind for the entire stay of 1 week.

Perhaps, the way to look at it: take the whole of the Northern Atlantic spanning east coast USA to Europe. When the spells of abnormal high winds and rain (N-Europe), freezing spells in the US and the High pressure missing over the Azores are all past history, then the trade wind will start to be more normal.

In my judgement, wind will normalize by the end of March. There is plenty of season left on Sao Vicente (does not end until the end of June).

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Flysurf77
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Re: Abnormal 2013/2014 season Sao Vicente

Postby Flysurf77 » Fri Feb 07, 2014 8:28 pm

mvandijk,
Interesting post, thanks !
I personally live the Mexican Caribbean, our season is from November till end of May, and so far has been the worse wind season of the past 6 years!
Our main wind at this time of the year is coming from the cold fronts form Canada and US, but this year those North fronts didn t reach us and even if this is one of the coldest winter in the USA, here, we still have summer weather with poor warm wind and very warm ocean temperature too.
Would that be related?
Any other part of the world lacking wind this season?
Thanks,
M


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