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 Post subject: Seriously Strong Wind On The Way?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2012 8:14 pm 
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It is too far off to say with much certainty but it looks like the east coast of Florida and certainly the Bahamas will have some strong winds this week from TS Sandy. Before that though Jamaica and Cuba may well feel Sandy as a Cat. I hurricane. It is supposed to weaken down to a tropical storm again as it passes over Cuba, lets hope it does. At any rate take good care out there.

Image
From Passageweather.com
This is just one model out of many and yet it has been fairly reliable at times in the past.

This advanced forecast is from around 7 am local time in Florida on Friday, October 26, 2012. You can see some strong winds just offshore and likely for some hours before that. The timing of this is uncertain this far in advance, so don't fixate on any of this. It is just an advanced heads up.

Whether we have serious squalls or not may depend on feeder band development, embedded squalls and placement. It is too far off at this point to say much more about that. The current rain forecast for Florida is low but that could change.


Image
http://www.wunderground.com/data/
A look at the basin satellite imagery


Image
http://www.wunderground.com/
A closer look at Florida, some feeder bands are already sliding over Florida Tuesday afternoon.


Be sure to monitor http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and http://fksa.org/showthread.php?t=1609 as this system passes through to try to avoid nasty surprises.


Here is the NWS forecast for Palm Beach County. This will change in the coming days how much in what way is uncertain at this time.

"Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM

Rest Of Today: East northeast winds 17 to 22 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet in the afternoon. Dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Isolated showers.

Tonight: East northeast winds 13 to 18 knots along the coast to east northeast 17 to 22 knots with gusts to around 30 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Isolated showers.

Wednesday: East northeast winds 19 to 24 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers.

Wednesday Night: East northeast winds 16 to 21 knots with gusts to around 30 knots along the coast to east northeast 22 to 27 knots with gusts to around 40 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Scattered showers.

Thursday: Northeast winds 26 to 31 knots along the coast to northeast 27 to 32 knots with gusts to around 45 knots in the gulf stream. Along the coast...gusts up to 45 knots in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 11 feet with occasional seas up to 14 feet. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers.

Thursday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Chance of showers.

Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Chance of showers.

Friday Night: Northwest winds 27 to 32 knots with gusts to around 45 knots along the coast to north northwest 27 to 32 knots with gusts to around 45 knots in the gulf stream. Along the coast...seas 15 to 18 feet with occasional seas up to 22 feet subsiding to 12 to 14 feet with occasional seas up to 18 feet. In the gulf stream...seas 18 to 22 feet with occasional seas up to 25 feet subsiding to 14 to 17 feet with occasional seas up to 20 feet. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Slight chance of showers.

Saturday: Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots along the coast to north northwest 27 to 32 knots with gusts to around 45 knots in the gulf stream. Along the coast... Seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet in the afternoon. In the gulf stream...seas 11 to 13 feet with occasional seas up to 17 feet subsiding to 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters rough. Slight chance of showers. "

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/

Speaking of the Bahamas, it doesn't look good over there at all from the forecast, much less for kiting per Barometer Bob in the Abacos. Bet there will be a ton of squalls as well as high sustained winds the rest of the time with the storm passage.
More at: http://barometerbob.org

Kite responsibly within your abilities, experience and gear limits as always. Don't have a small enough kite, solid past experience in similar conditions or if squalls move in, don't kite.



FKA, Inc.

transcribed by:
Rick Iossi


.


Last edited by RickI on Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Serously Strong Wind On The Way?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2012 8:45 pm 
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You are correct..when in doubt....abort...abort your kitesurfing mission

My rule... put up the smallest kite possible that i know i can self land 6M or 5M

Little prayer also is a great idea

Like Dirty Harry says.....a man's got to know his limitations :thumb:


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 Post subject: Re: Serously Strong Wind On The Way?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:23 pm 
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Location: The Naki
sounds epic. i crave 30+ knots and big seas. send some my way!. I have 10 knots forcast fro my kiting holiday planned this week.


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 Post subject: Re: Serously Strong Wind On The Way?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:01 am 
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Location: Jamaica
We're bracing for sandy here in kingston,Jamaica. gonna wake up early and see if my 5m can manage ... should be 40-70 mph winds :nono:


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 Post subject: Re: Seriously Strong Wind On The Way?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:09 am 
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Those are winds for a small 3m trainer kite :D
You guys are crazy.


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 Post subject: Re: Seriously Strong Wind On The Way?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:30 pm 
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How many out there have flown a 5 m kite in 70 mph or 60 kts. winds? That is real wind speeds like this, not poorly documented or estimated conditions.

Here's a question, how many have held up a twin tip kiteboard about 0.5 m in area in such conditions, or even less? What are the highest winds you have held a kiteboard perpendicular to the flow and what did it feel like? A 5 m kite could potentially have at least six times the force, with moment arm of the lines a good deal more than that.

Image
70 mph over water
http://www.sky-chaser.com/

Last point, a sheet of plywood is about 3 m in area. Who is up for holding just one sheet much less two in winds approaching 60 kts. then increase the force by the moment arm offered by the lines with movement of the lot? The best part is that in tropical systems you really have no idea how much, or little, wind might be tossed out at you. Squalls and microbursts can hammer you out of the dark sky and sent winds to even higher levels from the sustained wind. You find out real time.

Like I said,
Kite responsibly within your abilities, experience and gear limits as always. Don't have a small enough kite, solid past experience in similar conditions or if squalls move in, don't kite.


If you haven't comfortably done it before, a hurricane or strong tropical system is an incredibly bad time to try learn on the job with something new. There is a reason most have not been out in near hurricane conditions, good sense and the desire to stay in one piece.


.


Last edited by RickI on Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Seriously Strong Wind On The Way?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:34 pm 
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Location: OUTER BANKS (NC) USA. Owner of EPICKITES
Quote:
Poster: plummet
sounds epic. i crave 30+ knots and big seas. send some my way!...

Yes it is going to be EPIC here on the Outer Banks.
:thumb:


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 Post subject: Re: Seriously Strong Wind On The Way?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:06 pm 
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Location: The Naki
yes EPIC indeed.

whats the most i've kited in? Gusts to 50 knots. so 35 to 50 knots. I was landboarding and flying a 3 stack of flexi stackers and a less the 1m sq delta sport kite.

On the water hard to tell as it as the windiest day i didn't have a wind meter.. my estimate 35-45 knots maybe gusting to 50 but the only confirmation of wind speed i have is the drive home. i could drive at 100kph (driving down wind) put my hand out the window and not feel any wind on my hand! hardly scientific!

I start trimming my 6m at around 40 knots.

So I think the top end of my 6m is 50 knots. certainly i have nothing that will handle 50+ knots.


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 Post subject: Re: Seriously Strong Wind On The Way?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:19 pm 
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Quote:
Here's a question, how many have held up a twin tip kiteboard about 0.5 m in area in such conditions, or even less? What are the highest winds you have held a kiteboard perpendicular to the flow and what did it feel like? A 5 m kite could potentially have at least ten times the force, with moment arm of the lines a good deal more than that.


70 mph over water
http://www.sky-chaser.com/

Last point, a sheet of plywood is about 3 m in area. Who is up for holding just one sheet much less two in winds approaching 60 kts. then increase the force by the moment arm offered by the lines with movement of the lot? The best part is that in tropical systems you really have no idea how much, or little, wind might be tossed out at you. Squalls and microbursts can hammer you out of the dark sky and sent winds to even higher levels from the sustained wind. You find out real time.

Like I said,
Kite responsibly within your abilities, experience and gear limits as always. Don't have a small enough kite, solid past experience in similar conditions or if squalls move in, don't kite.

If you haven't comfortably done it before, a hurricane or strong tropical system is an incredibly bad time to try learn on the job with something new. There is a reason most have not been out in near hurricane conditions, good sense and the desire to stay in one piece.


Now in no way am I endorsing ludicrous activity but your point here is a little skewed. I could hold Te aforementioned plank of wood in 60 knot winds if I held the end of it and let it flap in the wind - like a kite sheeted out.

I don't turn my kite perpendicular to the wind and hang on for dear life.

Having said that. Be safe. If there is any doubt then the rule is - there is no doubt. Don't go out


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 Post subject: Re: Seriously Strong Wind On The Way?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:43 pm 
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Good point, the max projected area of a 5 m kite is around 3 m. So, you would do the simulation best with one instead of two sheets of plywood. The analogy has some serious limitations as you say.

On the other hand, lots of kiters, including a number who have passed away while having "fun" didn't properly come to grips in advance with the forces they would expose themselves to and their limited ability to stay in control.

If it helps to visualize trying to hold a 4 ft. x 8 ft.sheet of plywood (about 3 m) or even kiteboards against 60 kt. winds, so be it.

Another thing about tropical systems is that they may not throw out nice high sustained winds. It is often very gusty, from stall speed to lofting and all between over very short intervals along with violent direction changes at times.

bikesandboards wrote:

Now in no way am I endorsing ludicrous activity but your point here is a little skewed. I could hold Te aforementioned plank of wood in 60 knot winds if I held the end of it and let it flap in the wind - like a kite sheeted out.

I don't turn my kite perpendicular to the wind and hang on for dear life.

Having said that. Be safe. If there is any doubt then the rule is - there is no doubt. Don't go out


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