Now that's the question you want to know the answer to . . . I think it matters where you are geographically there doesn't seem to be one "best" model. Some models seem better tuned for particular locations, and in my area we have two or three different models just for the great lakes it doesn't give predictions outside this area, Hawaii has its own models only for the islands, there are some european specific wind models. It seems the specific models are better if you can use them because for one thing they offer a lower resolution. If you have 10k model it won't see any objects smaller than 10k if you have a .5 degree model it won't see anything smaller than 56km it will entirely miss bays, lakes and only be good for a very general forecast.Drew22 wrote:What model do you guys find to be the best or most accurate.
Yes, three days Max for accuracy ! But that's all they forecast for on the winds. They'lledt wrote: ...
Last of all . . . all the models don't work very good more than three days away. That's just where weather science is right now.
Nailed it!BWD wrote:I'm unlucky to live in an area with weak summer thermals mixed with frontal winds and and frontal winds only the rest of the year.
But luckily I can make the best of this by looking at the models and real time sensors near my main spots and ranging out a ways in several directions.
Synoptic forecasts and larger scale pressure drive the wind, while models and local pressure observations help predict speed and direction, and the real time wind speeds help you choose which model to follow.
All the models can be right at times, provided what the model "thinks" will happen, actually happens.
The current observations give the best insight to choose which model the weather will approximate over the next 12-36 hours, and to timing, which is often off by 8 to 24 h from the models.
From there as they say, you pays your money and you takes your chances...
In other words, it can be a horse race, the models are like conventional wisdom and early odds, the local observations are like watching the paddock and the walk to the gate.
You can hit big money occasionally with odds, but you stay ahead by watching the horses....
And human forecasts?
They are the Bob Costas of meteorology, small and expensive but usually worthless!
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