Drew22 wrote:What model do you guys find to be the best or most accurate.
Last of all . . . all the models don't work very good more than three days away. That's just where weather science is right now.
BWD wrote:I'm unlucky to live in an area with weak summer thermals mixed with frontal winds and and frontal winds only the rest of the year.
But luckily I can make the best of this by looking at the models and real time sensors near my main spots and ranging out a ways in several directions.
Synoptic forecasts and larger scale pressure drive the wind, while models and local pressure observations help predict speed and direction, and the real time wind speeds help you choose which model to follow.
All the models can be right at times, provided what the model "thinks" will happen, actually happens.
The current observations give the best insight to choose which model the weather will approximate over the next 12-36 hours, and to timing, which is often off by 8 to 24 h from the models.
From there as they say, you pays your money and you takes your chances...
In other words, it can be a horse race, the models are like conventional wisdom and early odds, the local observations are like watching the paddock and the walk to the gate.
You can hit big money occasionally with odds, but you stay ahead by watching the horses....
And human forecasts?
They are the Bob Costas of meteorology, small and expensive but usually worthless!
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