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Global winds...getting less?

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bipolarbear
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Re: Global winds...getting less?

Postby bipolarbear » Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:13 am

I was windsurfing from 1985-2003 and have been kitesurfing since 2003
Don't know about the sience.. but just an observation
I usually check the forecast many times a day..
The Wind was way better in august and september earlier days
More south-west gale, with rain, followed the gulf stream..
But now, in the summer the wind (speed) from south and high temperatures have increased
Don't know if the changes is temporary
But for sure the wind is different..
bpb

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Re: Global winds...getting less?

Postby marlboroughman » Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:48 am

They are talking about 70-75% chances of (weird) Modoki El Nino this winter. So we don't even know what that's gonna look like.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/art ... tarts-stir

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Re: Global winds...getting less?

Postby tegirinenashi » Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:37 am

tautologies wrote:...As temperatures rise, we'll have harsher storms, more of them, weather patterns will be more volatile, temperatures swing more...
Watched too much AlGore lately? Look, nobody denies there is an effect that more CO2 should trap some heat. The big issue here is the complex feedback loops, so that nobody has a clue if we would have one, two degree increase by the end of the century, or zilch. Currently, it looks like negative feedbacks win. Otherwise, what "global warming hiatus" are researchers currently talking about?

Let me put it in more simple terms. Several decades ago climate researchers were certain that CO2 would cause more warming, that will cause thawing sea ice, that would cause decreased albedo, which would bring even more warming. Hence the term "polar amplification". Some researchers were even so bold to predict in 1970s that Antarctic temperature would raise by 5-10 degrees in next 50 years jeopardizing West Antarctic Ice Shield (Mercer, Nature 1978). And what temperature history since 1970s is?
http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/icd/gjma/amun ... .trend.pdf
That is entirely consistent with Antarctic sea ice showing no change, or even growing.

So, if somebody tells you predictions that consistently fail to materialize
(e.g. Al Gore 2007: "Arctic would be free of sea ice in 5 years")
do you still believe him?

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Re: Global winds...getting less?

Postby SalmonSlayer » Tue Sep 23, 2014 7:19 am

tegirinenashi wrote:
tautologies wrote:...As temperatures rise, we'll have harsher storms, more of them, weather patterns will be more volatile, temperatures swing more...
Watched too much AlGore lately? Look, nobody denies there is an effect that more CO2 should trap some heat. The big issue here is the complex feedback loops, so that nobody has a clue if we would have one, two degree increase by the end of the century, or zilch. Currently, it looks like negative feedbacks win. Otherwise, what "global warming hiatus" are researchers currently talking about?

Let me put it in more simple terms. Several decades ago climate researchers were certain that CO2 would cause more warming, that will cause thawing sea ice, that would cause decreased albedo, which would bring even more warming. Hence the term "polar amplification". Some researchers were even so bold to predict in 1970s that Antarctic temperature would raise by 5-10 degrees in next 50 years jeopardizing West Antarctic Ice Shield (Mercer, Nature 1978). And what temperature history since 1970s is?
http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/icd/gjma/amun ... .trend.pdf
That is entirely consistent with Antarctic sea ice showing no change, or even growing.

So, if somebody tells you predictions that consistently fail to materialize
(e.g. Al Gore 2007: "Arctic would be free of sea ice in 5 years")
do you still believe him?
In the early 70s many Chicken Little's were running around saying the sky was falling in fear of another ice age. I think there were more drugs in the early 70s. It does not appear they got much right in the 70's.

I am still trying to figure out how these warming trends have produced extremely docile hurricane season in the continental USA over the last few years. Where are those extremes? Oh wait!! It was extremely docile which can also be extreme weather caused human generated GW.

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Re: Global winds...getting less?

Postby loco4viento » Tue Sep 23, 2014 7:37 am

Global warming (anthropogenic) was a religion in my country, right up up until the famous Al Gore hockey stick graph wasn't substantiated by those pesky, annoying little temperature measurements. Rather than abandon the religion, we re-named it "climate change" so that it could explain everything we see and measure (and justify more government control over our lives).

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Re: Global winds...getting less?

Postby tautologies » Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:49 am

loco4viento wrote:Global warming (anthropogenic) was a religion in my country, right up up until the famous Al Gore hockey stick graph wasn't substantiated by those pesky, annoying little temperature measurements. Rather than abandon the religion, we re-named it "climate change" so that it could explain everything we see and measure (and justify more government control over our lives).
Really? A conspiracy?

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Re: Global winds...getting less?

Postby tautologies » Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:45 am

tegirinenashi wrote:
tautologies wrote:...As temperatures rise, we'll have harsher storms, more of them, weather patterns will be more volatile, temperatures swing more...
Watched too much AlGore lately? Look, nobody denies there is an effect that more CO2 should trap some heat. The big issue here is the complex feedback loops, so that nobody has a clue if we would have one, two degree increase by the end of the century, or zilch. Currently, it looks like negative feedbacks win. Otherwise, what "global warming hiatus" are researchers currently talking about?

Let me put it in more simple terms. Several decades ago climate researchers were certain that CO2 would cause more warming, that will cause thawing sea ice, that would cause decreased albedo, which would bring even more warming. Hence the term "polar amplification". Some researchers were even so bold to predict in 1970s that Antarctic temperature would raise by 5-10 degrees in next 50 years jeopardizing West Antarctic Ice Shield (Mercer, Nature 1978). And what temperature history since 1970s is?
http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/icd/gjma/amun ... .trend.pdf
That is entirely consistent with Antarctic sea ice showing no change, or even growing.

So, if somebody tells you predictions that consistently fail to materialize
(e.g. Al Gore 2007: "Arctic would be free of sea ice in 5 years")
do you still believe him?
Not sure why you are referring to Gore. He is not a climatologist.

Since your example refers to climate science decades ago, do you think perhaps the scientific methods, measurements and accuracy has changed a tad?

The negative feedback that is currently being reported is heat storage in deeper waters as far as I can see. This will not continue forever. I am not climate scientist, but I do understand science and I have never seen a consensus like this.

You write as if the forecasted trends are wrong. They might not be 100% accurate, but that was never claimed. These are highly complex models...which are improved upon daily..but it certainly does not disprove the fact that the overall tendency and trend is correct.

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/about_bas/n ... hp?id=2769

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Re: Global winds...getting less?

Postby joriws » Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:01 pm

Here is my data about local (ice kiting) lake getting it's ice cover. I do not say the cause of this, I just want to present the 2 graphs.

Data is from 1836 to 2014 and very unscientific "lake is frozen when all water is covered by ice" and determined by local harbour master. History books started from 1836.

First figure - days ice has covered the lake. If kiting was invented in 1840 kiter could have 160 days per year ice kiting. Now only about 100.
nässy_days_under_ice.png
Second figure - as calendar days when lake has frozen and melted. I also added 2nd polynomial line to show that compared to linear trend the shortening of winter statistically has accelerated.
nässy_sulaminen-jäätyminen.png

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Re: Global winds...getting less?

Postby SalmonSlayer » Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:01 pm

The hipocracy is thick here. We drive long distances and go on exotic vacations chasing wind as a mostly privileged class of people. We burn inordinate (more than your "fair share") amounts of fuel getting to where we are going. It is typical though. A lot of bleating and clucking about the sky falling, but not walking the talk (with a few rare exceptions).

If you really believe that man is influencing the climate, stay home. You won't though. It is always about how someone else should change their behavior and not about personal sacrifice. I would think you would be proud to achieve the carbon footprint of someone living in a 3rd world hut.

What a joke!!!

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Re: Global winds...getting less?

Postby tegirinenashi » Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:39 pm

tautologies wrote:Since your example refers to climate science decades ago, do you think perhaps the scientific methods, measurements and accuracy has changed a tad?

The negative feedback that is currently being reported is heat storage in deeper waters as far as I can see. This will not continue forever. I am not climate scientist, but I do understand science and I have never seen a consensus like this.

You write as if the forecasted trends are wrong. They might not be 100% accurate, but that was never claimed. These are highly complex models...which are improved upon daily..but it certainly does not disprove the fact that the overall tendency and trend is correct.

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/about_bas/n ... hp?id=2769
So, you agree that Mercer's alarmist prediction of WAIS disintegration was wrong? Then, what makes you sure about predictions climate researchers are making today, would future generations in 2100 dismiss them as chicken-little nonsense as well? Please note, that the shortest estimation for WAIS disintegration is 200-1000 years. Just to give you a perspective, where were we 200 years ago? Napoleon was in exile waiting for Waterloo. The prevalent mode of transportation was horse-riding, and the greatest environmental concern of that day was that cities would drown in horsesh*t.


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